Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
