The Way This Strange Season Broke the Traditional NFL Coach of the Year Mold.

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

But this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division winners fading and recent strugglers improving in unison. Under an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still